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URK vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

URK
URK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
DEM
DEM
8/19/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 1Sportpark De Vormt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

URK43%
×Draw21%
DEM36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URK
2.00
DEM
1.81

URK creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

URK
1.81
DEM
1.26

allows per match

URK
2.35
DEM
2.18

finishing

URK+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URK ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

URK or draw
64%
URK or DEM
79%
Draw or DEM
57%

Winning margin

URK wins by 2+
24%
DEM wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

URK 1+ goals
86%
URK 2+ goals
59%
URK 3+ goals
32%
DEM 1+ goals
84%
DEM 2+ goals
54%
DEM 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

URK (draw refunded)
55%
DEM (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URK at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

DEM away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URK attack 1.81 + DEM defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.00

DEM attack 1.26 + URK defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

URK scores more
43%
level
21%
DEM scores more
36%

URK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "URK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: URK vs DEM

URK beat DEM 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vormt in Urk.