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Uritarra vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Uritarra
Uritarra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
12/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Estadio Errebale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uritarra37%
×Draw27%
Pasaia KE37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uritarra
1.27
Pasaia KE
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Uritarra
1.16
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Uritarra
1.53
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Uritarra+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uritarra ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Uritarra or draw
63%
Uritarra or Pasaia KE
73%
Draw or Pasaia KE
63%

Winning margin

Uritarra wins by 2+
16%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Uritarra 1+ goals
72%
Uritarra 2+ goals
36%
Uritarra 3+ goals
14%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
72%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
36%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Uritarra (draw refunded)
50%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uritarra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uritarra attack 1.16 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Uritarra defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Uritarra scores more
37%
level
27%
Pasaia KE scores more
37%

Uritarra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Uritarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uritarra vs Pasaia KE

Uritarra beat Pasaia KE 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Errebale in Larrabetzu.