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Uritarra vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Uritarra
Uritarra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
4/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 38Estadio Errebale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uritarra36%
×Draw27%
Lagun Onak37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uritarra
1.24
Lagun Onak
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 114 away

creates per match

Uritarra
1.16
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Uritarra
1.53
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Uritarra+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uritarra ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Uritarra or draw
63%
Uritarra or Lagun Onak
73%
Draw or Lagun Onak
64%

Winning margin

Uritarra wins by 2+
16%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Uritarra 1+ goals
71%
Uritarra 2+ goals
35%
Uritarra 3+ goals
13%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
71%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
36%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Uritarra (draw refunded)
50%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uritarra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uritarra attack 1.16 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Uritarra defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Uritarra scores more
36%
level
27%
Lagun Onak scores more
37%

Lagun Onak at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Uritarra 2–1 Lagun Onak

Uritarra beat Lagun Onak 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Errebale in Larrabetzu.