Uritarra 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II: Result & Stats

Uritarra

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Alavés II

1/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Estadio Errebale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uritarra24%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Alavés II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UritarraExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Alavés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.53

Uritarra

0.97

Deportivo Alavés II

1.53

Deportivo Alavés II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.16

creates per match

1.53

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Uritarra

1.16

Deportivo Alavés II

1.53

allows per match

Uritarra

1.53

Deportivo Alavés II

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uritarra+0.00on par

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uritarra ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Uritarra or draw

50%

Uritarra or Deportivo Alavés II

74%

Draw or Deportivo Alavés II

76%

Winning margin

Uritarra wins by 2+

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Uritarra 1+ goals

62%

Uritarra 2+ goals

25%

Uritarra 3+ goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals

45%

Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Uritarra (draw refunded)

32%

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Uritarra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Uritarra attack 1.16 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.97

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Uritarra defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Uritarra scores more

24%

level

26%

Deportivo Alavés II scores more

50%

Deportivo Alavés II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Uritarra 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II

Deportivo Alavés II beat Uritarra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Errebale in Larrabetzu.

Uritarra vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Uritarra 1–2 Deportivo Alavés II