Uritarra 1–3 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

Uritarra

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Aurrerá Ondarroa

9/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Estadio Errebale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uritarra41%

×Draw26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UritarraExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.23

Uritarra

1.40

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.23

Uritarra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

1.16

creates per match

0.92

1.53

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Uritarra

1.16

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

Uritarra

1.53

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uritarra+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uritarra ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Uritarra or draw

67%

Uritarra or Aurrerá Ondarroa

74%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

59%

Winning margin

Uritarra wins by 2+

19%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Uritarra 1+ goals

75%

Uritarra 2+ goals

41%

Uritarra 3+ goals

17%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

71%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

35%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Uritarra (draw refunded)

55%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Uritarra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Uritarra attack 1.16 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Uritarra defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Uritarra scores more

41%

level

26%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

33%

Uritarra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Uritarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Uritarra 1–3 Aurrerá Ondarroa

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat Uritarra 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Errebale in Larrabetzu.

Uritarra vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Uritarra 1–3 Aurrerá Ondarroa