Urgatzi 3–1 Santutxu: Result & Stats

Urgatzi

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Santutxu

12/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Urgatzi29%

×Draw25%

Santutxu46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrgatziExpected goals in this matchSantutxu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.55

Urgatzi

1.16

Santutxu

1.55

Santutxu creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

0.73

creates per match

0.98

2.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Urgatzi

0.73

Santutxu

0.98

allows per match

Urgatzi

2.13

Santutxu

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urgatzi+0.00on par

Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urgatzi ↓

Santutxu →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Urgatzi or draw

54%

Urgatzi or Santutxu

75%

Draw or Santutxu

71%

Winning margin

Urgatzi wins by 2+

11%

Santutxu wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Urgatzi 1+ goals

69%

Urgatzi 2+ goals

32%

Urgatzi 3+ goals

11%

Santutxu 1+ goals

79%

Santutxu 2+ goals

46%

Santutxu 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Urgatzi (draw refunded)

38%

Santutxu (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urgatzi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urgatzi attack 0.73 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.16

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Urgatzi defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urgatzi scores more

29%

level

25%

Santutxu scores more

46%

Santutxu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santutxu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff