Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urgatzi vs Gernika — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urgatzi
Urgatzi
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Gernika
Gernika
2/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Urgatzi17%
×Draw22%
Gernika61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urgatzi
0.86
Gernika
1.86

Gernika creates 116% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

creates per match

Urgatzi
0.73
Gernika
1.59

allows per match

Urgatzi
2.13
Gernika
1.00

finishing

Urgatzi+0.00on par
Gernika+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urgatzi ↓

Gernika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Urgatzi or draw
39%
Urgatzi or Gernika
78%
Draw or Gernika
83%

Winning margin

Urgatzi wins by 2+
5%
Gernika wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Urgatzi 1+ goals
58%
Urgatzi 2+ goals
21%
Urgatzi 3+ goals
6%
Gernika 1+ goals
84%
Gernika 2+ goals
55%
Gernika 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Urgatzi (draw refunded)
22%
Gernika (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urgatzi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Gernika away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urgatzi attack 0.73 + Gernika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Gernika attack 1.59 + Urgatzi defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Urgatzi scores more
17%
level
22%
Gernika scores more
61%

Gernika at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urgatzi vs Gernika

Gernika beat Urgatzi 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz in Vitoria-Gasteiz.