Urgatzi 0–2 Deusto: Result & Stats

Urgatzi

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deusto

1/23/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Urgatzi25%

×Draw25%

Deusto50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrgatziExpected goals in this matchDeusto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.55

Urgatzi

1.02

Deusto

1.55

Deusto creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

0.73

creates per match

0.98

2.13

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Urgatzi

0.73

Deusto

0.98

allows per match

Urgatzi

2.13

Deusto

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urgatzi+0.00on par

Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urgatzi ↓

Deusto →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Urgatzi or draw

50%

Urgatzi or Deusto

75%

Draw or Deusto

75%

Winning margin

Urgatzi wins by 2+

Deusto wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Urgatzi 1+ goals

64%

Urgatzi 2+ goals

27%

Urgatzi 3+ goals

Deusto 1+ goals

79%

Deusto 2+ goals

46%

Deusto 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Urgatzi (draw refunded)

33%

Deusto (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urgatzi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urgatzi attack 0.73 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Deusto attack 0.98 + Urgatzi defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Urgatzi scores more

25%

level

25%

Deusto scores more

50%

Deusto at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff