Urgatzi 0–2 Aurrerá Ondarroa: Result & Stats

Urgatzi

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1/20/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Futbol zelaia Olabide Gasteiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Urgatzi30%

×Draw25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrgatziExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.52

Urgatzi

1.19

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.52

Aurrerá Ondarroa creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

0.73

creates per match

0.92

2.13

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Urgatzi

0.73

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

Urgatzi

2.13

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urgatzi+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urgatzi ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Urgatzi or draw

55%

Urgatzi or Aurrerá Ondarroa

75%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

70%

Winning margin

Urgatzi wins by 2+

12%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Urgatzi 1+ goals

70%

Urgatzi 2+ goals

33%

Urgatzi 3+ goals

12%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

78%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

45%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Urgatzi (draw refunded)

40%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urgatzi at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urgatzi attack 0.73 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.19

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Urgatzi defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Urgatzi scores more

30%

level

25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

45%

Aurrerá Ondarroa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aurrerá Ondarroa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff