Urena SC 4–2 Yaracuy FC: Result & Stats

Urena SC

FT

4 – 2

Yaracuy FC

8/21/2021

Segunda División · Round 8Cancha Alterna De Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Urena SC43%

×Draw26%

Yaracuy FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urena SCExpected goals in this matchYaracuy FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Urena SC

1.44

Yaracuy FC

1.19

Urena SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 47 away

1.53

creates per match

1.30

1.07

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Urena SC

1.53

Yaracuy FC

1.30

allows per match

Urena SC

1.07

Yaracuy FC

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Yaracuy FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw

69%

Urena SC or Yaracuy FC

74%

Draw or Yaracuy FC

57%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+

21%

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals

76%

Urena SC 2+ goals

42%

Urena SC 3+ goals

18%

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals

70%

Yaracuy FC 2+ goals

33%

Yaracuy FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)

58%

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.53 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Urena SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urena SC scores more

43%

level

26%

Yaracuy FC scores more

31%

Urena SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff