Urena SC 2–0 Llaneros de Guanare: Result & Stats

Urena SC

FT

2 – 0

Llaneros de Guanare

9/18/2021

Segunda División · Round 13Cancha Alterna De Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Urena SC50%

×Draw26%

Llaneros de Guanare25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urena SCExpected goals in this matchLlaneros de Guanare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.00

Urena SC

1.53

Llaneros de Guanare

1.00

Urena SC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 43 away

1.53

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Urena SC

1.53

Llaneros de Guanare

0.93

allows per match

Urena SC

1.07

Llaneros de Guanare

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw

75%

Urena SC or Llaneros de Guanare

74%

Draw or Llaneros de Guanare

50%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+

25%

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals

78%

Urena SC 2+ goals

45%

Urena SC 3+ goals

20%

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals

63%

Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals

26%

Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)

67%

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.53 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Urena SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Urena SC scores more

50%

level

26%

Llaneros de Guanare scores more

25%

Urena SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff