Urena SC 0–0 Deportivo Lara: Result & Stats

Urena SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Lara

4/12/2026

Segunda División · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Urena SC37%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Lara35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urena SCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Lara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.22

Urena SC

1.26

Deportivo Lara

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 8 away

1.52

creates per match

1.38

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Urena SC

1.52

Deportivo Lara

1.38

allows per match

Urena SC

1.06

Deportivo Lara

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par

Deportivo Lara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Deportivo Lara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw

65%

Urena SC or Deportivo Lara

73%

Draw or Deportivo Lara

63%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo Lara wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals

72%

Urena SC 2+ goals

36%

Urena SC 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Lara 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Lara 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Lara 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo Lara (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.06 · 111 matches

Deportivo Lara away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.52 + Deportivo Lara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Deportivo Lara attack 1.38 + Urena SC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Urena SC scores more

37%

level

27%

Deportivo Lara scores more

35%

Urena SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff