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Urduliz vs Touring — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urduliz
Urduliz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Touring
Touring
4/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Estadio Iparralde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Urduliz39%
×Draw27%
Touring33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urduliz
1.29
Touring
1.16

Urduliz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 66 away

creates per match

Urduliz
1.09
Touring
1.21

allows per match

Urduliz
1.10
Touring
1.48

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par
Touring+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Touring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw
67%
Urduliz or Touring
73%
Draw or Touring
61%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+
18%
Touring wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals
72%
Urduliz 2+ goals
37%
Urduliz 3+ goals
14%
Touring 1+ goals
69%
Touring 2+ goals
32%
Touring 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)
54%
Touring (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Touring away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Touring defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Touring attack 1.21 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urduliz scores more
39%
level
27%
Touring scores more
33%

Urduliz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Urduliz 1–2 Touring

Touring beat Urduliz 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Iparralde in Urduliz.