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Urduliz vs Sestao River — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urduliz
Urduliz
CANC
00:00
Sestao River
Sestao River
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Estadio Iparralde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Urduliz28%
×Draw27%
Sestao River45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urduliz
1.06
Sestao River
1.43

Sestao River creates 35% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 28 away

creates per match

Urduliz
1.09
Sestao River
1.75

allows per match

Urduliz
1.10
Sestao River
1.04

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw
55%
Urduliz or Sestao River
73%
Draw or Sestao River
72%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+
11%
Sestao River wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals
65%
Urduliz 2+ goals
29%
Urduliz 3+ goals
9%
Sestao River 1+ goals
76%
Sestao River 2+ goals
42%
Sestao River 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)
38%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sestao River attack 1.75 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Urduliz scores more
28%
level
27%
Sestao River scores more
45%

Sestao River at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Urduliz face Sestao River (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Urduliz hosting Sestao River. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Urduliz host Sestao River at Estadio Iparralde.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.