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Urduliz vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urduliz
Urduliz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
2/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Estadio Iparralde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Urduliz38%
×Draw29%
San Ignacio33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urduliz
1.13
San Ignacio
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 112 away

creates per match

Urduliz
1.09
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Urduliz
1.10
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw
67%
Urduliz or San Ignacio
71%
Draw or San Ignacio
62%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+
15%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals
68%
Urduliz 2+ goals
31%
Urduliz 3+ goals
11%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
65%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
28%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)
53%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Urduliz scores more
38%
level
29%
San Ignacio scores more
33%

Urduliz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Urduliz 1–0 San Ignacio

Urduliz beat San Ignacio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Iparralde in Urduliz.