Urduliz 0–1 Pasaia KE: Result & Stats

Urduliz

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pasaia KE

1/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Estadio Iparralde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Urduliz40%

×Draw28%

Pasaia KE31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrdulizExpected goals in this matchPasaia KE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.05

Urduliz

1.23

Pasaia KE

1.05

Urduliz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 111 away

1.09

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Urduliz

1.09

Pasaia KE

1.00

allows per match

Urduliz

1.10

Pasaia KE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Pasaia KE →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw

69%

Urduliz or Pasaia KE

72%

Draw or Pasaia KE

60%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+

18%

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals

71%

Urduliz 2+ goals

35%

Urduliz 3+ goals

13%

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

65%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

28%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)

56%

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Urduliz scores more

40%

level

28%

Pasaia KE scores more

31%

Urduliz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff