Urduliz 2–1 Padura: Result & Stats

Urduliz

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Padura

2/15/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Estadio Iparralde-Urduliz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Urduliz46%

×Draw27%

Padura27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrdulizExpected goals in this matchPadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Urduliz

1.39

Padura

1.00

Urduliz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 49 away

1.09

creates per match

0.90

1.10

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Urduliz

1.09

Padura

0.90

allows per match

Urduliz

1.10

Padura

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par

Padura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Padura →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw

73%

Urduliz or Padura

73%

Draw or Padura

54%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+

22%

Padura wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals

75%

Urduliz 2+ goals

40%

Urduliz 3+ goals

16%

Padura 1+ goals

63%

Padura 2+ goals

26%

Padura 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)

63%

Padura (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Padura away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Padura defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Padura attack 0.90 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urduliz scores more

46%

level

27%

Padura scores more

27%

Urduliz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff