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Urduliz vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urduliz
Urduliz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Estadio Iparralde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Urduliz48%
×Draw27%
Aurrerá Vitoria25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urduliz
1.44
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.96

Urduliz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 32 away

creates per match

Urduliz
1.09
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.81

allows per match

Urduliz
1.10
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par
Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw
75%
Urduliz or Aurrerá Vitoria
73%
Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria
52%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+
24%
Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals
76%
Urduliz 2+ goals
42%
Urduliz 3+ goals
18%
Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
62%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
25%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)
66%
Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Urduliz scores more
48%
level
27%
Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
25%

Urduliz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urduliz vs Aurrerá Vitoria

Urduliz and Aurrerá Vitoria drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Iparralde in Urduliz.