URB 7–3 Sporting Mertzig: Result & Stats | Cup

URB

7 – 3

Sporting Mertzig

9/12/2021

Cup · 1st RoundStade Op der Millen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

URB20%

×Draw15%

Sporting Mertzig65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

URBExpected goals in this matchSporting Mertzig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

3.97

URB

2.30

Sporting Mertzig

3.97

Sporting Mertzig creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

3.80

4.14

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

URB

2.00

Sporting Mertzig

3.80

allows per match

URB

4.14

Sporting Mertzig

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

URB+0.00on par

Sporting Mertzig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URB ↓

Sporting Mertzig →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–35%

1–45%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

72%28%

Double chance

URB or draw

35%

URB or Sporting Mertzig

85%

Draw or Sporting Mertzig

80%

Winning margin

URB wins by 2+

10%

Sporting Mertzig wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

URB 1+ goals

90%

URB 2+ goals

67%

URB 3+ goals

40%

Sporting Mertzig 1+ goals

98%

Sporting Mertzig 2+ goals

89%

Sporting Mertzig 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

URB (draw refunded)

24%

Sporting Mertzig (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

URB at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

Sporting Mertzig away — creates 3.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

URB attack 2.00 + Sporting Mertzig defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Sporting Mertzig attack 3.80 + URB defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 3.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

URB scores more

20%

level

15%

Sporting Mertzig scores more

65%

Sporting Mertzig at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sporting Mertzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff