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URB vs Schifflange — Cup 2020

URB
URB
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Schifflange
Schifflange
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Op der Millen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

URB17%
×Draw15%
Schifflange68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URB
1.69
Schifflange
3.38

Schifflange creates 100% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

URB
2.00
Schifflange
2.63

allows per match

URB
4.14
Schifflange
1.38

finishing

URB+0.00on par
Schifflange+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URB ↓

Schifflange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

URB or draw
32%
URB or Schifflange
85%
Draw or Schifflange
83%

Winning margin

URB wins by 2+
7%
Schifflange wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

URB 1+ goals
82%
URB 2+ goals
50%
URB 3+ goals
24%
Schifflange 1+ goals
96%
Schifflange 2+ goals
84%
Schifflange 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

URB (draw refunded)
20%
Schifflange (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URB at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

Schifflange away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URB attack 2.00 + Schifflange defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Schifflange attack 2.63 + URB defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

URB scores more
17%
level
15%
Schifflange scores more
68%

Schifflange at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Schifflange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: URB vs Schifflange

Schifflange beat URB 4-0 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Op der Millen in Remich.