Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

URB vs Koeppchen — Cup 2020

URB
URB
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Koeppchen
Koeppchen
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Op der Millen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

URB15%
×Draw13%
Koeppchen72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URB
1.90
Koeppchen
4.07

Koeppchen creates 114% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

URB
2.00
Koeppchen
4.00

allows per match

URB
4.14
Koeppchen
1.80

finishing

URB+0.00on par
Koeppchen+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URB ↓

Koeppchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

URB or draw
28%
URB or Koeppchen
87%
Draw or Koeppchen
85%

Winning margin

URB wins by 2+
6%
Koeppchen wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

URB 1+ goals
85%
URB 2+ goals
56%
URB 3+ goals
29%
Koeppchen 1+ goals
98%
Koeppchen 2+ goals
90%
Koeppchen 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

URB (draw refunded)
17%
Koeppchen (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URB at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

Koeppchen away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URB attack 2.00 + Koeppchen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Koeppchen attack 4.00 + URB defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 4.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

URB scores more
15%
level
13%
Koeppchen scores more
72%

Koeppchen at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Koeppchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

URB 3 – 2 Koeppchen

URB beat Koeppchen 3-2 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Op der Millen in Remich.