Urawa 2–3 Yokohama F. Marinos: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Yokohama F. Marinos

J. Quinones 90' (OG)

T. Kaneko 28'

J. Amano 79'

K. Watanabe 62'

R. Yamane 21'

4/25/2026

J1 League · Round 12Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Urawa40%

×Draw27%

Yokohama F. Marinos33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchYokohama F. Marinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.18

Urawa

1.34

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.18

Urawa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

1.31

creates per match

1.14

1.22

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Urawa

1.31

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.14

allows per match

Urawa

1.22

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.38

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Urawa+0.17scores more

Yokohama F. Marinos-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

67%

Urawa or Yokohama F. Marinos

73%

Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos

60%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

19%

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

74%

Urawa 2+ goals

39%

Urawa 3+ goals

15%

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

69%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

33%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

55%

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.31 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.14 + Urawa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Urawa scores more

40%

level

27%

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

33%

Urawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Watanabe

Yokohama F. Marinos · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

Kaina Tanimura

21'

R. Yamane↳ K. Tanimura

28'

T. Kaneko↳ H. Ishihara

62'

K. Watanabe↳ J. Croux

69'

T. Kondo← J. Croux

72'

Y. Matsuo← K. Yasui

72'

H. Komori← A. Onaiwu

77'

H. Asada← Yuri Araujo

79'

J. Amano

85'

K. Suwama← R. Tsunoda

86'

T. Kida← J. Amano

88'

Yusuke MatsuoPenalty cancelled

89'

T. Teruuchi← T. Kaneko

90+2'

Kai Shibato

90'

S. Nakajima← R. Hidano

90'

J. QuinonesOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UrawaYokohama

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots8

9Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target4

5Off Target3

6Blocked1

13Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

435Total Passes291

335Accurate Passes200

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0