Urawa 2–1 Wuhan Three Towns: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

J. Kanté 90'

A. Scholz 37' (pen)

Davidson 68'

11/29/2023

AFC Champions League · Group J - 5Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Urawa71%

×Draw18%

Wuhan Three Towns11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.79

Urawa

2.29

Wuhan Three Towns

0.79

Urawa creates 190% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

2.24

creates per match

1.00

0.59

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Urawa

2.24

Wuhan Three Towns

1.00

allows per match

Urawa

0.59

Wuhan Three Towns

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

89%

Urawa or Wuhan Three Towns

82%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

29%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

47%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

90%

Urawa 2+ goals

66%

Urawa 3+ goals

40%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

55%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

19%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

86%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 2.24 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.00 + Urawa defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Urawa scores more

71%

level

18%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

11%

Urawa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Davidson

Wuhan Three Towns · F

8.3

Match Events

37'

A. ScholzPenalty

43'

T. Sekine← A. Ohata

44'

Chao He

45+2'

T. Okubo← T. Takahashi

64'

Bryan Linssen

68'

Davidson↳ Jiang Zhipeng

70'

A. Schalk← Y. Koizumi

70'

E. Panya← S. Nakajima

70'

J. Kanté← B. Linssen

77'

Gao Zhunyi← He Guan

77'

Yan Dinghao← He Chao

85'

Tao Qianglong← Jiang Zhipeng

88'

Marius Höibraten

90+1'

Li Yang← Deng Hanwen

90'

J. Kanté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UrawaWuhan

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots10

2Corners7

12Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target3

5Off Target5

3Blocked2

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

482Total Passes393

384Accurate Passes291

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1