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Urawa vs Vegalta Sendai — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Urawa
Urawa
Canc
04:00
Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
1/25/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kincho Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Urawa49%
×Draw20%
Vegalta Sendai31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
2.33
Vegalta Sendai
1.83

Urawa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Urawa
2.33
Vegalta Sendai
2.33

allows per match

Urawa
1.33
Vegalta Sendai
2.33

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Vegalta Sendai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
69%
Urawa or Vegalta Sendai
80%
Draw or Vegalta Sendai
51%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
30%
Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
90%
Urawa 2+ goals
67%
Urawa 3+ goals
41%
Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
84%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
54%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
61%
Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 2.33 + Vegalta Sendai defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Vegalta Sendai attack 2.33 + Urawa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Urawa scores more
49%
level
20%
Vegalta Sendai scores more
31%

Urawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Urawa face Vegalta Sendai (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Urawa hosting Vegalta Sendai. Match starts January 25, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Urawa host Vegalta Sendai at Kincho Football Center.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.