Urawa 1–0 Vegalta Sendai: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vegalta Sendai

7/6/2019

J1 League · Round 18Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Urawa49%

×Draw25%

Vegalta Sendai26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchVegalta Sendai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.07

Urawa

1.58

Vegalta Sendai

1.07

Urawa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 70 away

1.49

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Urawa

1.49

Vegalta Sendai

1.07

allows per match

Urawa

1.07

Vegalta Sendai

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Vegalta Sendai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

74%

Urawa or Vegalta Sendai

75%

Draw or Vegalta Sendai

51%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

25%

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

79%

Urawa 2+ goals

47%

Urawa 3+ goals

21%

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

66%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

29%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

66%

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.07 · 152 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.07 + Urawa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Urawa scores more

49%

level

25%

Vegalta Sendai scores more

26%

Urawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff