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Urawa vs Shandong Luneng — AFC Champions League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
4/18/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Urawa68%
×Draw18%
Shandong Luneng14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
2.29
Shandong Luneng
0.93

Urawa creates 146% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Urawa
2.24
Shandong Luneng
1.27

allows per match

Urawa
0.59
Shandong Luneng
2.33

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
86%
Urawa or Shandong Luneng
82%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
32%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
44%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
90%
Urawa 2+ goals
66%
Urawa 3+ goals
40%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
61%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
24%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
83%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 2.24 + Shandong Luneng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 + Urawa defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Urawa scores more
68%
level
18%
Shandong Luneng scores more
14%

Urawa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Urawa 5–0 Shandong Luneng

Urawa beat Shandong Luneng 5-0 in AFC Champions League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.