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Urawa vs Omiya Ardija — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
8/5/2017J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Urawa57%
×Draw21%
Omiya Ardija22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
2.08
Omiya Ardija
1.20

Urawa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 3 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.49
Omiya Ardija
1.33

allows per match

Urawa
1.07
Omiya Ardija
2.67

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Omiya Ardija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
78%
Urawa or Omiya Ardija
79%
Draw or Omiya Ardija
43%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
35%
Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
87%
Urawa 2+ goals
61%
Urawa 3+ goals
34%
Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
70%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
34%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
73%
Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.07 · 152 matches

Omiya Ardija away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Omiya Ardija defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Omiya Ardija attack 1.33 + Urawa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Urawa scores more
57%
level
21%
Omiya Ardija scores more
22%

Urawa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Urawa 2–2 Omiya Ardija

Urawa and Omiya Ardija drew 2-2 in J1 League on August 5, 2017.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.