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Urawa vs Kashima — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kashima
Kashima
Y. Suzuki 14'
9/20/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Urawa39%
×Draw26%
Kashima35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.37
Kashima
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.34
Kashima
1.33

allows per match

Urawa
1.24
Kashima
1.40

finishing

Urawa+0.09on par
Kashima+0.14scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
65%
Urawa or Kashima
74%
Draw or Kashima
61%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
18%
Kashima wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
75%
Urawa 2+ goals
40%
Urawa 3+ goals
16%
Kashima 1+ goals
72%
Kashima 2+ goals
37%
Kashima 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
52%
Kashima (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 23 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.34 + Kashima defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kashima attack 1.33 + Urawa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urawa scores more
39%
level
26%
Kashima scores more
35%

Urawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. HayakawaKashimaKashima · G
7.3

Match Events

14'
Y. Suzuki
46'
K. Chinen← Y. Funabashi
46'
Y. Matsumura← Elber
55'
Tae-hyeon Kim
57'
H. Komori← T. Kaneko
72'
S. Nakajima← S. Gustafson
72'
T. Sekine← Matheus Savio
72'
I. Kiese← Y. Matsuo
76'
Marius Høibråten
77'
Talles Brener← Leo Ceara
81'
T. Ogiwara← Y. Naganuma
85'
K. Tsukui← A. Cavric
90'
R. Ogawa← Y. Suzuki

Possession

65%Urawa

Shots

15Urawa

Pass accuracy

53%Urawa

Statistics

UrawaKashima
Overview
65%Possession35%
15Total Shots11
1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.90
7Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots11
3On Target2
8Off Target5
4Blocked4
7Inside Box7
8Outside Box4
Passing
65%Possession35%
540Total Passes287
448Accurate Passes209
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Urawa 0 – 1 Kashima

Kashima beat Urawa 1-0 in J1 League on September 20, 2025.

Goals: Y. Suzuki (14').

Urawa controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.