Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urawa vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Urawa
Urawaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
10/2/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Semi-finalsSaitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Urawa72%
×Draw20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.95
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.52

Urawa creates 275% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Urawa
2.31
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.47

allows per match

Urawa
0.56
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.59

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
91%
Urawa or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
80%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
28%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
45%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
86%
Urawa 2+ goals
58%
Urawa 3+ goals
31%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
41%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
10%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
89%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 2.31 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.95

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.47 + Urawa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Urawa scores more
72%
level
20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
9%

Urawa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Urawa 2–0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Urawa beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on October 2, 2019.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.