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Urawa vs Consadole Sapporo — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
4/15/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 8Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Urawa47%
×Draw25%
Consadole Sapporo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.61
Consadole Sapporo
1.18

Urawa creates 36% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 123 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.49
Consadole Sapporo
1.28

allows per match

Urawa
1.07
Consadole Sapporo
1.74

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
72%
Urawa or Consadole Sapporo
75%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
53%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
24%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
80%
Urawa 2+ goals
48%
Urawa 3+ goals
22%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
69%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
33%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
63%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.07 · 152 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Urawa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Urawa scores more
47%
level
25%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
28%

Urawa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Urawa 4–1 Consadole Sapporo

Urawa beat Consadole Sapporo 4-1 in J1 League on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium 2002 in Saitama.