Urawa 3–0 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buriram United

3/6/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Urawa67%

×Draw21%

Buriram United12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.64

Urawa

1.90

Buriram United

0.64

Urawa creates 197% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

2.24

creates per match

0.68

0.59

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Urawa

2.24

Buriram United

0.68

allows per match

Urawa

0.59

Buriram United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

88%

Urawa or Buriram United

79%

Draw or Buriram United

33%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

41%

Buriram United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

85%

Urawa 2+ goals

56%

Urawa 3+ goals

29%

Buriram United 1+ goals

47%

Buriram United 2+ goals

14%

Buriram United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

85%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Buriram United away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 2.24 + Buriram United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.90

Buriram United attack 0.68 + Urawa defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Urawa scores more

67%

level

21%

Buriram United scores more

12%

Urawa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff