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Urawa vs Al Ahly — FIFA Club World Cup 2019

Urawa
Urawa
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
12/22/2023FIFA Club World CupFIFA Club World Cup · 3rd Place FinalPrince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Urawa13%
×Draw16%
Al Ahly71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.08
Al Ahly
2.71

Al Ahly creates 151% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Urawa
0.67
Al Ahly
1.75

allows per match

Urawa
3.67
Al Ahly
1.50

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
29%
Urawa or Al Ahly
84%
Draw or Al Ahly
87%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
4%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
66%
Urawa 2+ goals
29%
Urawa 3+ goals
10%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
93%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
75%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
15%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 0.67 + Al Ahly defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Ahly attack 1.75 + Urawa defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Urawa scores more
13%
level
16%
Al Ahly scores more
71%

Al Ahly at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FIFA Club World Cup: Urawa 2–4 Al Ahly

Al Ahly beat Urawa 4-2 in FIFA Club World Cup on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.