Urania Baška Voda 3–3 Vodice: Result & Stats

Urania Baška Voda

FT

3 – 3

Vodice

9/1/2019

Third NL - Jug · South - 1Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda56%

×Draw23%

Vodice22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urania Baška VodaExpected goals in this matchVodice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.06

Urania Baška Voda

1.85

Vodice

1.06

Urania Baška Voda creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

1.54

creates per match

0.92

1.21

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.54

Vodice

0.92

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.21

Vodice

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Vodice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw

78%

Urania Baška Voda or Vodice

77%

Draw or Vodice

44%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

32%

Vodice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

84%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

55%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

28%

Vodice 1+ goals

65%

Vodice 2+ goals

29%

Vodice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

72%

Vodice (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Vodice attack 0.92 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more

56%

level

23%

Vodice scores more

22%

Urania Baška Voda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff