Urania Baška Voda 0–3 Sloga Mravince

Urania Baška Voda

FT

0 – 3

Sloga Mravince

10/10/2021

Third NL - Jug · South - 9Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda46%

×Draw25%

Sloga Mravince30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urania Baška VodaExpected goals in this matchSloga Mravince

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.23

Urania Baška Voda

1.59

Sloga Mravince

1.23

Urania Baška Voda creates 29% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

1.54

creates per match

1.25

1.21

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.54

Sloga Mravince

1.25

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.21

Sloga Mravince

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Sloga Mravince →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw

70%

Urania Baška Voda or Sloga Mravince

75%

Draw or Sloga Mravince

54%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

23%

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

80%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

47%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

21%

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals

71%

Sloga Mravince 2+ goals

35%

Sloga Mravince 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

61%

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more

46%

level

25%

Sloga Mravince scores more

30%

Urania Baška Voda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff