Urania Baška Voda 0–5 RNK Split: Result & Stats

Urania Baška Voda

FT

0 – 5

RNK Split

9/29/2021

Third NL - Jug · South - 7Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda46%

×Draw25%

RNK Split29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urania Baška VodaExpected goals in this matchRNK Split

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.22

Urania Baška Voda

1.58

RNK Split

1.22

Urania Baška Voda creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.54

creates per match

1.23

1.21

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.54

RNK Split

1.23

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.21

RNK Split

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

RNK Split →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw

71%

Urania Baška Voda or RNK Split

75%

Draw or RNK Split

54%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

23%

RNK Split wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

79%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

47%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

21%

RNK Split 1+ goals

70%

RNK Split 2+ goals

34%

RNK Split 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

61%

RNK Split (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more

46%

level

25%

RNK Split scores more

29%

Urania Baška Voda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff