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Urania Baška Voda vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
CANC
14:30
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
5/3/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 27Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Urania Baška Voda48%
×Draw25%
NK Zadar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.60
NK Zadar
1.16

Urania Baška Voda creates 38% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 9 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
72%
Urania Baška Voda or NK Zadar
75%
Draw or NK Zadar
52%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
25%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
80%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
47%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
22%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
69%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
32%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
63%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
48%
level
25%
NK Zadar scores more
28%

Urania Baška Voda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Urania Baška Voda host NK Zadar

May 3, 2020: Urania Baška Voda take on NK Zadar in Third NL - Jug. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Urania Baška Voda host NK Zadar at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.