Urania Baška Voda 0–0 Junak: Result & Stats

Urania Baška Voda

FT

0 – 0

Junak

11/20/2022

Third NL - Jug · South - 14Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda44%

×Draw25%

Junak30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urania Baška VodaExpected goals in this matchJunak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.21

Urania Baška Voda

1.52

Junak

1.21

Urania Baška Voda creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 86 away

1.54

creates per match

1.20

1.21

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.54

Junak

1.20

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda

1.21

Junak

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Junak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Junak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw

70%

Urania Baška Voda or Junak

75%

Draw or Junak

56%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

22%

Junak wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

78%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

45%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

20%

Junak 1+ goals

70%

Junak 2+ goals

34%

Junak 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

59%

Junak (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Junak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Junak defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Junak attack 1.20 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more

44%

level

25%

Junak scores more

30%

Urania Baška Voda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff