Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urania Baška Voda vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
3 – 1
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
11/22/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 16Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda51%
×Draw24%
Hrvatski vitez25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.75
Hrvatski vitez
1.16

Urania Baška Voda creates 51% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 93 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
75%
Urania Baška Voda or Hrvatski vitez
76%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
49%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
28%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
83%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
52%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
25%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
69%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
32%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
67%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
51%
level
24%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
25%

Urania Baška Voda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Urania Baška Voda 3–1 Hrvatski vitez

Urania Baška Voda beat Hrvatski vitez 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.