Hrvatski vitez 2–1 Urania Baška Voda

Hrvatski vitez

FT

2 – 1

Urania Baška Voda

6/5/2021

Third NL - Jug · South - 33Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Hrvatski vitez65%

×Draw20%

Urania Baška Voda15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski vitezExpected goals in this matchUrania Baška Voda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.88

Hrvatski vitez

2.06

Urania Baška Voda

0.88

Hrvatski vitez creates 134% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 57 away

1.99

creates per match

0.81

0.95

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez

1.99

Urania Baška Voda

0.81

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez

0.95

Urania Baška Voda

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Urania Baška Voda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw

85%

Hrvatski vitez or Urania Baška Voda

80%

Draw or Urania Baška Voda

35%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+

40%

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals

87%

Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals

61%

Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals

34%

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

59%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

22%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)

81%

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.06

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more

65%

level

20%

Urania Baška Voda scores more

15%

Hrvatski vitez at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff