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Urania Baška Voda vs GOŠK Dubrovnik — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
3 – 1
GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
9/22/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 5Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda52%
×Draw24%
GOŠK Dubrovnik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.67
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.03

Urania Baška Voda creates 62% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.86

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.79

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
77%
Urania Baška Voda or GOŠK Dubrovnik
76%
Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik
48%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
28%
GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
81%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
50%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
23%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
64%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
28%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
69%
GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
52%
level
24%
GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
23%

Urania Baška Voda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Urania Baška Voda 3–1 GOŠK Dubrovnik

Urania Baška Voda beat GOŠK Dubrovnik 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.