GOŠK Dubrovnik 1–0 Urania Baška Voda

GOŠK Dubrovnik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Urania Baška Voda

4/30/2022

Third NL - Jug · South - 30Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik57%

×Draw24%

Urania Baška Voda19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOŠK DubrovnikExpected goals in this matchUrania Baška Voda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.89

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.73

Urania Baška Voda

0.89

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 94% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

1.33

creates per match

0.81

0.97

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.33

Urania Baška Voda

0.81

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.97

Urania Baška Voda

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

Urania Baška Voda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw

81%

GOŠK Dubrovnik or Urania Baška Voda

76%

Draw or Urania Baška Voda

43%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

32%

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

82%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

52%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

25%

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

59%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

22%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

75%

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

57%

level

24%

Urania Baška Voda scores more

19%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff