Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 0–1 Torpedo Miass

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Miass

9/9/2023

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Uralets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil37%

×Draw28%

Torpedo Miass35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uralets Nizhnyi TagilExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Miass

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.16

Torpedo Miass

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

1.18

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.18

Torpedo Miass

1.25

allows per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.00

Torpedo Miass

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil+0.00on par

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil ↓

Torpedo Miass →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or draw

65%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or Torpedo Miass

72%

Draw or Torpedo Miass

63%

Winning margin

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil wins by 2+

15%

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1+ goals

69%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2+ goals

32%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3+ goals

11%

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals

68%

Torpedo Miass 2+ goals

31%

Torpedo Miass 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil (draw refunded)

51%

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.18 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Torpedo Miass attack 1.25 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil scores more

37%

level

28%

Torpedo Miass scores more

35%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff