Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod II

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod II

5/4/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Uralets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil65%

×Draw21%

Nizhny Novgorod II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uralets Nizhnyi TagilExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.73

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.90

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.73

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil creates 160% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

0.46

1.00

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.18

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.46

allows per match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil

1.00

Nizhny Novgorod II

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or draw

86%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil or Nizhny Novgorod II

79%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II

35%

Winning margin

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil wins by 2+

39%

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1+ goals

85%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 2+ goals

56%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 3+ goals

29%

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals

52%

Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals

17%

Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil (draw refunded)

83%

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.18 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil scores more

65%

level

21%

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more

14%

Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff