Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil vs Amkar — Second League - Group 4 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil32%
Amkar40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Amkar creates 14% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 53 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches
Amkar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil attack 1.18 + Amkar defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13
Amkar attack 1.58 + Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Amkar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil substitutes
KAMAZ
Tyumen
Chelyabinsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
Novosibirsk
Zvezda Perm
Dinamo Barnaul
Nosta
Ural II
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Lada Dimitrovgrad
Zenit Izhevsk
Lada Tolyatti
Krylya Sovetov II
Orenburg IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil host Amkar on Saturday, 18 May 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Second League - Group 4 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil vs Amkar
Amkar beat Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on May 18, 2024.
Goals: D. Zuev (14').
The match was played at Stadion Uralets in Nizhnyi Tagil.