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Ural vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
Y. Zheleznov 47'
K. Chursin 54'
11/22/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Yekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ural45%
×Draw25%
Spartak Kostroma30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.56
Spartak Kostroma
1.21

Ural creates 29% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ural or draw
70%
Ural or Spartak Kostroma
75%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
55%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
23%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
79%
Ural 2+ goals
46%
Ural 3+ goals
21%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
34%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
61%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ural scores more
45%
level
25%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
30%

Ural at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Martin Sekulić
41'
Nikolay Tarasov
46'
M. Tlekhugov← D. Bokov
47'
Y. Zheleznov↳ R. Akbashev
54'
K. Chursin↳ A. Gharibyan
60'
A. Nemchenko← I. Enin
60'
A. Saplinov← D. Zhilmostnykh
70'
D. Sadov← K. Chursin
75'
M. Voronov← E. Mosin
76'
M. Chikanchi← A. Gharibyan
79'
F. Sungatulin← V. Bondarev
90+4'
Nikita Supranovich
90+1'
E. Markov← M. Sekulic

Statistics

UralSpartak
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ural vs Spartak Kostroma

Ural and Spartak Kostroma drew 1-1 in First League on November 22, 2025.

Goals: Y. Zheleznov (47'), K. Chursin (54').

The match was played at Yekaterinburg Arena in Yekaterinburg.