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Ural vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
11/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ural38%
×Draw28%
Rubin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.25
Rubin
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ural
1.12
Rubin
1.02

allows per match

Ural
1.31
Rubin
1.39

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw
66%
Ural or Rubin
72%
Draw or Rubin
62%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
17%
Rubin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
71%
Ural 2+ goals
36%
Ural 3+ goals
13%
Rubin 1+ goals
69%
Rubin 2+ goals
33%
Rubin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
53%
Rubin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rubin attack 1.02 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ural scores more
38%
level
28%
Rubin scores more
34%

Ural at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ural 0–1 Rubin

Rubin beat Ural 1-0 in Premier League on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.