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Ural vs Rodina Moskva — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
8/2/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Yekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural42%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.34
Rodina Moskva
1.10

Ural creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Rodina Moskva
1.32

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Rodina Moskva
0.97

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw
69%
Ural or Rodina Moskva
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
58%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
19%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
74%
Ural 2+ goals
39%
Ural 3+ goals
15%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
67%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
58%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ural scores more
42%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva scores more
31%

Ural at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ural vs Rodina Moskva

Ural beat Rodina Moskva 2-1 in First League on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Yekaterinburg Arena in Yekaterinburg.