Ural 2–2 Lokomotiv Moscow: Result & Stats

Ural

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv Moscow

10/7/2023

Premier League · Round 11Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ural34%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv Moscow41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.42

Ural

1.27

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.42

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 12% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 120 away

1.12

creates per match

1.52

1.31

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Ural

1.12

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.52

allows per match

Ural

1.31

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ural or draw

59%

Ural or Lokomotiv Moscow

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow

66%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

15%

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

72%

Ural 2+ goals

36%

Ural 3+ goals

14%

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

76%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

41%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

45%

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ural scores more

34%

level

26%

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

41%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff