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Ural vs Krylya Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
10/20/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ural44%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.46
Krylya Sovetov
1.17

Ural creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 106 away

creates per match

Ural
1.12
Krylya Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Ural
1.31
Krylya Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ural or draw
70%
Ural or Krylya Sovetov
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
56%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
21%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
77%
Ural 2+ goals
43%
Ural 3+ goals
18%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
69%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
33%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
59%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ural scores more
44%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
30%

Ural at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ural vs Krylya Sovetov

Ural and Krylya Sovetov drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Central Stadium in Yekaterinburg.