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Krylya Sovetov vs Ural — Premier League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ural
Ural
5/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Krylya Sovetov47%
×Draw26%
Ural27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.46
Ural
1.03

Krylya Sovetov creates 42% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 92 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.31
Ural
0.89

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.17
Ural
1.60

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
73%
Krylya Sovetov or Ural
74%
Draw or Ural
53%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
23%
Ural wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
77%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
43%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
18%
Ural 1+ goals
64%
Ural 2+ goals
28%
Ural 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
64%
Ural (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Ural away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.31 + Ural defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ural attack 0.89 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
47%
level
26%
Ural scores more
27%

Krylya Sovetov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Krylya Sovetov 3–0 Ural

Krylya Sovetov beat Ural 3-0 in Premier League on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Solidarnost Arena in Samara.